St. Johnsbury, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS61 KBTV 091146
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
746 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will taper off early this morning, then a
dry but cool day and night are expected. Precipitation chances
return Thursday becoming more widespread Friday and over the
weekend. Temperatures will trend warmer after tonight which will
be close to record lows in some spots.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 738 AM EDT Wednesday...No changes for this morning`s
update. Some light snow is still being reported in isolated
spots, but will be winding down shortly. Previous discussion
follows.

Upslope snow showers will come to an end by about 8 am as
surface high pressure begins to ridge into our area. A cold air
mass will settle over the area, as drier air also moves into our
area. High temperatures today will be about 10 degrees below
seasonal normals for early April across the north country,
maximum temperatures will range from the lower 30s to around 40
degrees. A good radiational cooling set up tonight with dry air
in place and mainly clear skies. Winds will also decouple as
high pressure crests over the north country. Minimum
temperatures overnight will dip into the teens to around 20
degrees. This will be close to record lows at several locations,
and possibly the last very cold night of the season. Have
leaned on colder MOS guidance for the overnight lows as well as
afternoon dewpoints today. On Thursday, a warming trend will
begin as next system approaches our area, but precipitation
should hold off till late afternoon in our northern New York
zones and stay dry across Vermont. Warm air advection
precipitation begins ahead of low which will be tracking
northeastward from the Ohio river valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Wednesday...A few lingering showers are
possible Thursday night into Friday, but models have been
trending drier, so they likley will not amount to much.
Temperatures will be cold enough in the higher elevations for
snow to fall, but with low liquid amounts and marginal
temperatures, accumulations will be light. However, it will be
at night so the snow should be able to accumulate a bit,
especially on unpaved surfaces. Up to around an inch of snow
looks possible, with the higher totals in southern Vermont where
the most liquid equivalent precipitation looks to fall. There
should be mostly dry weather on Friday as this first shortwave
passes out of the region. With conditions on Friday trending
drier, temperatures have been trending up. Highs should reach
the 40s and low 50s. This should melt any snow that falls
Thursday night, except maybe at the highest peaks where there is
still a snowpack.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Wednesday...A more potent low moves into the
region Friday night into Saturday. There is still some model
uncertainty on the timing of the exact arrival of the
precipitation, but there is relatively good agreement that it
should be occurring by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures again
will be cold enough in the higher elevations for snow to fall.
The precipitation looks heavy enough for a period on Saturday
that dynamical cooling should be able to lower snow levels a
bit, and that the rates should be heavy enough at times to cause
some accumulations, despite the high sun angle at this time of
year. A couple inches of snow are possible in the higher
terrain. However, there has been a trend in decreasing QPF with
this event, so that looks to cut back on the amounts. The new
Euro and some of the other guidance now keeps far northern areas
dry. Overall, still think there should be a period of
relatively steady precipitation for a decent part of the day
Saturday. Precipitation amounts have trended down enough that
flooding is not a concern. Warmer air will become entrained in
the system so the precipitation should change to rain in most
areas Saturday night. The steady precipitation should exit
sometime Saturday night, but a large scale trough on Sunday may
keep a few showers around. Ridging builds in for Monday and
should bring a period of dry weather. Temperatures will also
warm considerably, with highs in the 50s to around 60 forecast.
A cold front passes though sometime Tuesday and it will drop
temperatures back down for mid-week, and there could be a few
snow showers at higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Snow showers only continue at MPV but
will be coming to an end shortly. Still MVFR ceilings at SLK and
RUT also, but conditions will be improving. Winds will become
west 5-10 knots during the day today.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA,
Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Minimum temperatures tonight will be close to record lows at
Montpelier, Plattsburgh and Massena.

Record Low Temperatures:

April 10:
KMPV: 17/1997
KPBG: 20/1977
KMSS: 17/1985

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...